THE KING DOLLAR
Most individuals are indifferent to changes in valuations of currencies; and it is only when they go on holidays abroad that the exchange rate becomes topical.
In the business world it is much more relevant, however. Pretty much every business will use tools or products that have come from another jurisdiction, which probably uses another currency.
What drives the value of a currency in relation to another?
First of all, it is always a relationship; i.e. it is not the value of the USD in absolute terms; it is that value against the EURO for instance; or against GBP (The Pound Sterling).One way to look at this is called PPP “Purchasing Power Parity”. The most famous example is the price of a McDonalds hamburger across the world. Since McDonalds are present everywhere, have very efficient production lines and a cooking process that is the same in every restaurant, down to the number of employees in the kitchen; then the price should be close to identical. And it is not in reality. PPP is the theoretical version of the McDonalds test.
In theory a currency should be sought after, if its economy is doing well, and its interest rates are low. Low interest rates help economic creation, whereas high interest rates hinder it. Quite often high interest rates are needed to fight inflation; to make the cost of money higher which in turn will slow inflation down. If inflation is at 10 percent, one will need 110 units to buy the same thing that costs 100 today; hence the need to fight this. However, in practice there are cases when the currency appreciates when the central bank raises interest rates. This is because institutional investors are likely to invest funds where savings rates on offer are higher; or that the central bank is raising them to fight inflation to make the economy on a stronger footing.
What is happening now?
The US Dollar has gained more or less 15% across the board, and the Dollar Index “DXY” has reached all times high (it is a basket of currencies revalued in USD). It means that all other currencies have depreciated a very great deal precisely at the time that commodities have gone up because of the war and logistics issues due to covid. An example: the EURO against the USD has gone from 1.15 to 1.05; while the price of oil has gone from USD 70 to USD 110 per barrel.
Any European importer has to change their euros into dollars to buy these barrels; so to them the price has gone from 70/1.15 to 110/1.05 i.e. 61 to 105 euros making the cost even more expensive (in dollar the price of the barrel has changed by 57%; in euros by 72%).
The problem is that all commodities are priced in US dollars. Be they metals (iron, nickel, copper…); energy (oil, gas); food (grains, coffee, sugar…). Unless a country is a producer of these, importing has become much more expensive; in other words it is driving inflation.
In addition, emerging countries (most of Africa and Asia) have debts denominated in US Dollar because they need access to it in order to fund capital investments and purchases of commodities. To these countries a high USD is a major issue. We just saw Sri Lanka default on its foreign debts because of this and the country falling into riots over the price of food and energy.
The US government is of course aware of these unwanted consequences, but their priority is to put the US economy back on track too; a conundrum. In order for the Dollar to lose its appeal other governments will have to raise interest rates to make their currencies more attractive; a tough choice since their economies are already suffering from high inflation.
The blue sky scenario would of course be some conclusion to the Ukraine war which would burst the balloon of high commodity prices.
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26. About ACME and the Umbrella Funds:
Aria Capital Management (Europe) Limited is licensed by the Maltese Financial Services Authority with its registered address at The Hub, Triq Sant ’Andrija, San Gwann, SGN 1612 under Malta Registration number C 26673.
Absolute Return Investment Advisers (ARIA) Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, under reference 527575, with its registered office at Building 2, Ground Floor, Guildford Business Park, Guildford, GU2 8XG.
ARIA SICAV P.L.C. (the “Company”) a self-managed open-ended collective investment scheme organized as a multi-fund public limited liability company with variable share capital registered under the Laws of Malta and licensed by the Malta Financial Services Authority in terms of the Investment Services Act (Chapter 370 of the Laws of Malta). The Company qualifies as a self-managed „Maltese UCITS‟ in terms of the Investment Services Act (Marketing of UCITS) Regulations 2011.
ARIA SICAV PLC (including each of its sub-funds) is licensed as a collective investment scheme by the Malta Financial Services Authority under the Investment Services Act (cap. 370, laws of Malta) and qualifies as a „Maltese UCITS‟ in terms of the Investment Services Act (Marketing of UCITS) Regulations, 2011 (S.L. 370.18 laws of Malta).
27. Contact Us:
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Effective as of 1st September 2022